For nearly a decade, Pinarayi Vijayan has dominated Kerala’s political landscape with an authority that a few Chief Ministers in the state’s history have wielded.
Within the CPI(M), he has emerged as the unchallenged helmsman and within the government, the final arbiter. That aura of invincibility, however, is beginning to fray — and the most telling sign is not coming from the opposition, but from within the Left Democratic Front (LDF) itself.
The first salvo was fired by the CPI, which is the second-largest ally in the ruling coalition.
Its leadership convened a meeting to review the LDF’s disappointing performance in the recent local body elections, which arrived at an unusually blunt conclusion: the need for correction, and that responsibility rests squarely with CM Vijayan.
In Kerala’s Left politics, where allies traditionally choose euphemism over confrontation, this was no minor departure. It marked a clear shift from whispered discontent to open signalling.
More significantly, similar sentiments have echoed within the CPI(M). At its own three-day stocktaking meeting on the electoral reversal, a section of the party conveyed — in unambiguous terms — that the time has come for a course correction, and that Vijayan himself must lead it.
The subtext is hard to miss: the leadership style that once delivered stability and electoral success may now be part of the problem.
Age and health have inevitably entered the conversation.
Vijayan is past 80 and has been grappling with health issues, even as he continues to project his trademark tough demeanour.
While age alone has never been a disqualifier in Kerala politics, the demands of what could be one of the most stressful election campaigns the state has seen raise legitimate questions.
The carefully crafted narrative of a third consecutive Vijayan government after the Assembly polls scheduled for April-May is beginning to look less assured.
This dilemma exposes a deeper structural problem for the CPI(M), which is regarding succession.
The party has faced this conundrum before, also. In 2016, it was V.S. Achuthanandan, then Leader of Opposition and a mass leader with unmatched popular appeal, who fronted the campaign that led to a decisive LDF victory. Yet, soon after the triumph, Achuthanandan was eased out, making way for Vijayan.
Five years later, in 2021, Vijayan himself became the face of the campaign — armed with the advantages of incumbency, a strong administrative image forged during crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, and his handling of controversies, including the gold smuggling case involving Swapna Suresh.
He triumphed, securing a rare second consecutive term for the Left.
The past five years, however, have been markedly different. Governance under Vijayan has become increasingly centralised, with the Chief Minister seen as the last word both in the party and government.
This concentration of authority, once praised for decisiveness, has now bred stagnation and resentment.
Controversies — from the lingering shadows of the gold smuggling and Sabarimala-linked cases to allegations of administrative opacity—have chipped away at the moral high ground the Left traditionally claims.
The result is a sense that the Vijayan model has reached a cul-de-sac.
For perhaps the first time in his tenure, the Chief Minister appears to be navigating genuinely rough waters, with criticism coming not just from rivals but from comrades.
Yet, the CPI(M) leadership is not ready to concede ground.
Party state secretary M.V. Govindan has struck an openly defiant note, projecting confidence that the LDF will secure a sure 60 of the 140 Assembly seats — enough, in his assessment, to form a third consecutive Left government.
He has pinned hopes on a systematic, door-to-door campaign to recover what was lost in the local body polls, which will enable them to cross the magical figure for governance.
That optimism, however, does little to answer the central question now animating Kerala’s political discourse: who after Pinarayi?
The absence of a clear successor underscores how deeply the party has tied its fortunes to one individual.
If Vijayan’s health or political capital falters further, the CPI(M) may find itself scrambling — not just for votes, but for leadership.
The waning of the “Pinarayi magic”, if that is indeed what is unfolding, does not automatically spell defeat for the Left. But it does signal the end of complacency.
Whether the CPI(M) can reinvent itself, decentralise authority, and present a credible post-Vijayan vision may well determine not just the outcome of the next election, but the future trajectory of the Left Front in Kerala, its only bastion in the country.
