As Japan and the United States signed a critical minerals and rare earths agreement in Tokyo on Tuesday, experts in Washington believed that despite the agreement, Tokyo feared that the US President may “soften his stance on China” when he meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, later this week in South Korea.
While addressing the media in Washington on Tuesday, Sayuri Romei, a Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), argued that “Tokyo’s main fear is that Trump may just soften his stance on China and will strike a deal with Beijing that could impact the regional balance.”
Trump met Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo on Monday and signed multiple agreements, including a deal on critical minerals and rare earths.
Both sides vowed to intensify their “cooperative efforts” to accelerate the security of mineral supply chains.
“The Participants are intensifying their cooperative efforts to accelerate the secure supply of critical minerals and rare earths necessary to support domestic industries, including advanced technologies and their respective industrial bases, by leveraging policy tools such as the United States’ and Japan’s financial support mechanisms, trade measures where appropriate, and critical minerals stockpiling systems,” read a statement issued by the White House.
It also mentioned that both countries will intensify efforts to promote dialogue amongst upstream and downstream companies to facilitate the diversification of supply chains.
On Tuesday, the House Select Committee on China welcomed the US-Japan minerals deal. In a post on X, it wrote, “The new US-Japan trade and critical minerals agreements strengthen our shared supply chains and deter China’s economic coercion. A resilient alliance is the best defense against the CCP’s attempts to dominate key technologies and industries.”
However, Romei added that, irrespective of the agreements, Tokyo remains wary of the unpredictability surrounding the US President.
“Trump always seems to listen to the last person who talks to him. So, in this case, it will be interesting to see how he will approach his meeting with Xi Jinping after having listened to Tokyo’s perspective first,” she noted.
The agreement with Japan comes two days after the US signed minerals deals with Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia.
The US efforts to de-risk critical minerals supply chains have gained momentum after China announced sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies in early October.
The Trump administration opposed the move and threatened 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports while attempting to build a global coalition to counter China’s threats, including with India.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng and trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Malaysia and agreed on a “framework” for a trade deal.
Bessent, while speaking to ABC News on Sunday, claimed that Beijing had agreed to a “delay” in rare earth export controls for one year.
Bonnie Glaser, the Managing Director of the GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program, emphasised that the Chinese believe that they have an upper hand in the negotiations due to their dominance in the rare earths sector.
“I think the Chinese believe that Trump is willing to make a deal and will cave in in some ways.”
She added that Trump also recognises that China has “weaponised” its rare earths and recent agreements with Southeast Asian countries reflect US uneasiness.
“There are provisions in some of those agreements where countries have basically pledged to not do things that would be harmful to the United States, in other words, to not stand with China,” she added.
Glaser asserted that the summit would not “fundamentally alter the dynamics in the US-China relationship” despite chances of agreements on rare earths and other issues.
“The United States and China are engaged in intense competition in many areas, many domains, including over which country has the upper hand in innovation and the diffusion of technology, which political and economic system is superior, and which country will shape and lead the international order, and I expect that that competition will continue,” she concluded.
