The Indian economy closed the financial year 2023-24 strongly despite strong external headwinds, and early indications suggest that the growth momentum will continue during the current April-June quarter of 2024-25, according to a Finance Ministry report released on Friday.
“The emerging robust trends in key high-frequency indicators of growth like GST collections, e-way bills, electronic toll collections, sale of vehicles, purchasing managers’ indices, and the value and number of digital transactions attest to the growing strength of the economy,” the Finance Ministry said in its monthly economic review for April.
The industrial and service sectors of the Indian economy are performing well, backed by brisk domestic demand and partially by tentative external demand. This can benefit India’s manufacturing firms as part of the China Plus One strategy.
The EXIM Bank of India has forecast that merchandise exports will post a double-digit growth in Q1 of FY25, the report pointed out.
The report expects domestic manufacturing to receive stronger export orders due to improved economic activity and consumer sentiment in Europe and a steady US economy. It cites an uptick in India’s exports in April to support the point.
It admits that geopolitical tensions and volatility in global commodity prices, especially of petroleum products, present substantial challenges. “Nonetheless, the expectation is that the macro-economic buffers will help the Indian economy navigate these challenges reasonably smoothly,” the report added.
Factors like the ongoing recovery in the hotel and tourism industry, increased credit flow to transport and real estate segments, policy support, and robust investments in physical and digital infrastructure and logistics will help the services sector. The strong export growth in April 2024 indicates that the momentum in services trade has been carried forward into FY25, it said.
On the inflation front, the report cites the good rabi harvest of wheat and the prediction of a normal Southwest Monsoon as factors that will lead to higher food production and easing of price pressures during 2024-25. The RBI has forecast a 4.9 per cent retail inflation for FY25’s first quarter.
According to the report, Government initiatives to stabilise the prices of essential food items, including their open market sale, stock monitoring and trade policy measures are helping to stabilise food prices.
“The positive indications in the farm sector should help India firewall against any adverse pressures that may arise from geopolitical tensions and global commodity prices. Likewise, the strong macro-economic buffers of India should help the real sectors of the economy navigate the external headwinds smoothly and continue the growth momentum of the previous year,” the report added.
