Bihar poised for tough electoral battle; RJD may lead with 85 seats

An electoral victory with big margins may not be the case in Bihar, where the final phase of Assembly elections concluded on Saturday, as per the IANS CVoter Exit Poll.

Though it seems the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) may jack up with a projection of 85 seats, the BJP is also in the striking range with 70 seats, as per the exit poll.

According to the exit poll, RJD, which has projected Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face, is likely to win 85 out of the 144 seats it has contested. The RJD has a probable strike rate of 59 per cent.

The BJP, which is contesting on 110 seats, is likely to win 70 seats, with a probable strike rate of 63.6 per cent.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JD-U) seems to be adversely hit by 15 years of anti-incumbency, and is likely to win 42 out of 115 seats it has contested, with a probable strike rate of 36.5 per cent.

The Congress, which is contesting on 70 seats, is likely win 25 seats with a probable strike rate of 35.7 per cent.

Evaluating the political parties in the electoral fray on marginal seats, which are likely to have less than 3 per cent margin of victory (Mov), it is apparent that the Opposition alliance — RJD, Congress and Left parties — may have such margins at nearly 42 seats. Whereas, the NDA has 29 marginal seats. This also means that just 1.5 per cent swing of votes can change the results in these seats.

On the aspect of runner-up in these marginal seats, the BJP is likely to be second on 16 seats and the JD-U on 28 seats. The RJD will be runner-up in 14 marginal seats and the Congress on 8 seats.