David Salvo, the Managing Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at German Marshall Fund and a former senior policy advisor at the US State Department, believes that the possibility of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky remains “extremely low” even though Washington has announced the beginning of “arrangements for a meeting” between both leaders. The White House on Tuesday claimed that the Russian leader has agreed to the big-ticket engagement.
Speaking exclusively with Media, Salvo argued that Monday’s meetings between Trump and European leaders had “pleasant optics” but were little on substance. According to him, there is still a “massive gap” between European and American positions on security guarantees for Ukraine.
“Despite what the White House says and hopes, I assess the possibility of a meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky in the near future to be extremely low. Putin does not consider Zelensky the legitimate leader of Ukraine and I don’t imagine him sitting across the table unless he knows Zelensky is going to capitulate to basically all of Russia’s demands. Russia will insist on preparatory talks at lower levels between Russian and Ukrainian delegations before the Kremlin ever agrees to put Putin in the room with Zelensky,” Salvo told Media.
European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met the US President at the White House on Monday following his meeting with Putin in Alaska, last week. European leaders who met Trump included UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
“The meeting between European leaders and President Trump had pleasant optics, but little on substance. There’s still a massive gap between European and Ukrainian leaders’ vision for security guarantees for Ukraine and the Trump administration’s vision. There are still differences in the sequencing of events – whether a ceasefire should precede a comprehensive peace agreement or whether the two should coincide. If the Europeans came to Washington hoping to convince Trump to walk away from his general agreement with President Putin, reached in Alaska a few days prior, they largely failed,” believes Salvo.
After his meetings with the Ukrainian President and European leaders, Trump announced that he is arranging a meeting between Zelensky and Putin in his effort to end the devastating war that has killed hundreds of thousands of civilMedia and military personnel.
Following the meeting, Trump spoke to the Russian President and held discussions to hold a trilateral meeting – Zelensky, Putin and Trump – to discuss the peace talks.
However, Salvo emphasised that it is “extremely difficult” to envision Moscow softening its “maximalist position” about excluding NATO countries’ forces from Ukraine after a settlement is reached.
“That, of course, will be a major impediment to reaching an expeditious conclusion to the war in Ukraine, which Russia itself does not want. Russia prefers to keep fighting, believing it has the military advantage to acquire even more territory – and weaken President Zelensky – prior to a negotiation. Ukraine will have a difficult time concluding any peace agreement that doesn’t make clear guarantees for its security. The wild card is the United States. Will it throw Ukraine under the bus and push it to agree to Russia’s maximalist terms? Trump has been vague about what sort of role the United States would play, other than to say he won’t commit American boots on the ground,” he told Media in an interview.
Moscow has reportedly proposed that Kyiv should “fully withdraw from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” in exchange for a Russian promise to freeze the frontlines in the southern oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
“I think Kyiv could agree to a land swap provided they do not have to recognise Russian control of Ukrainian territory de jure and credible security guarantees are spelled out in a legally binding way – essentially in an Article 5-like arrangement with clear US participation. Absent that, it will be extremely difficult for Kyiv to accept a land swap,” said Salvo.
The former senior policy advisor at the US State Department also emphasised that he expects the threat of secondary US sanctions on India and China to continue.
“But, I don’t think the administration has a great interest in implementing them and it won’t be a prominent part of the conversation. In Congress, however, I would expect continued bipartisan support to go after Russia’s enablers,” he stated.
