After China driving the initial demand growth, it is going to be India which will take the leading role in crude requirement, along with other Asian and African countries, as per an OPEC report.
According to the OPEC’s “World Oil Outlook 2045” report, released during the ongoing India Energy Week here on Tuesday, besides India, fairly robust growth during this period is also projected for African and other Asian countries where economic progress, urbanisation, industrialisation, and vehicle fleet expansion will be fastest among all regions.
This, the report said, “will result in respective demand increases of around 1.4 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, for India, Africa and Other Asia respectively during the 2040-2045 period”.
Even by 2045, oil demand will still grow at a rate of more than 2 per cent per annum in India and Africa and 1 per cent per annum in Other Asia region, the report, which charts a roadmap for oil sector from 2022 till 2045, said.
In another significant observation, the OPEC report said that it would be a global challenge to meet oil-related investment requirements of $12.1 trillion by 2045.
“Cumulative oil-related investment requirements are projected at $12.1 trillion over the entire 2022-2045 period (in 2022 US dollars). This is slightly higher than assessed in the World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2021, as upward-revised demand projections and assumed cost inflation in the short- and medium-term more than offset the forecast period being one year shorter,” it said.
Upstream needs make up $9.5 trillion, while downstream and midstream requirements are $1.6 and $1 trillion, respectively, it noted.
The report further pointed out that “risks to the economic outlook, high inflation, energy policy goals confronted with energy security challenges, and questions regarding a perceived shortfall in upstream investment, coupled with persisting and new geopolitical uncertainties, means that significant risks regarding the longer-term liquids supply outlook remain”.
Detailing a roadmap for the future, the report said that “in the current geopolitical context, besides a pressing need to increase climate ambitions, countries are increasingly focused on energy security issues. There is now more attention on an energy sustainability trilemma, related to affordability, energy security and reducing emissions, evidenced in many countries publicly recognising the need for inclusive and resilient approaches, including through more investments in oil and gas projects going forward”.
