Breaking the second wave
The inevitable second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have finally made its landfall in India, with the country recording 53,476 fresh cases on Thursday, its highest daily spike in five months.
The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare expressed its concerns regarding this surge which was the highest seen since October 23 when as many as 54,366 cases were reported. The daily death toll from the disease also went up to 251, at a time when the Centre decided to open up vaccination for all individuals over 45 from April 1 onwards. For a nation that has witnessed one year of lockdowns and unlockings, these developments have contributed to a growing sense of restlessness, as the spread of the virus seems to be blazing past the rate of vaccinations in India. A report released by SBI has forewarned that fresh cases have been on the rise since February and that this second wave is expected to last at least 100 days, and should peak by the middle of April, if we consider February 15 as the baseline date. More troublingly, the caseload from this new wave is estimated to be 25 lakh individuals.
The axiom of trouble coming in pairs seems all the more justified when one considers the discovery of the double mutant variant of COVID-19, which has seemingly thrown epidemiologists for a loop. The mutant variant, which was seen in COVID-patients in Delhi and Mumbai has left the Health Ministry on the fence, as it has still sufficiently not established whether mutants are behind the surge in cases. For those following the statistics, as many as 771 cases of variants of concern (VOC), a term used to classify mutant variants of COVID-19, have been detected in about 10,787 positive cases across 18 states.
It may be recalled that the variant carrying the two mutations have been separately linked to making the virus spread even more rapidly, and to an extent nullify the immunity provided by the vaccine or from a prior infection. The Health Ministry had also confirmed that analysis of the samples taken from Maharashtra revealed an increased fraction of samples with mutations, as compared to four months ago in Dec 2020, and are unique variants that bear no resemblance to previously catalogued VOC samples.
If one places India alongside other nations that are witnessing subsequent waves of COVID-19, it might appear that we are holding out stronger than most, especially in the backdrop of mass vaccination drives. Many countries have been considering the option of full-fledged lockdowns, a case in point being Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel made a sudden U-turn just two days after the announcement of a five-day Easter blockade. Here in India, although no explicit lockdown has been announced yet, the Health Ministry has instructed the Chief Secretaries of states to consider imposing local restrictions, especially considering the onset of festivals such as Eid, Holi, Bihu, and Easter.
Lockdowns, especially at a time like this, when people have already been drained from one year of distancing and isolation, can only be counter-productive, as the moment restrictions are lowered, citizens will begin thronging each other’s homes like it was business as usual. The only way to outrun the virus is by passing on the relay to the vaccination drive across states. The daily pace of vaccination sees about 34 lakh shots being disbursed. This number has to be amped up to at least 40-45 lakh per day, which will still imply that we will take at least four more months before all citizens over 45 get inoculated. The hurdle to that goal is the virus will not be subdued during this period, and it will continue with its onslaught even as vaccinations continue at full speed.
